Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 18 – Seattle Seahawks 27

(12:18) 38-C.Ryland punts 37 yards to SEA 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model