Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Arizona Cardinals 18

(14:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to ARI 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 8 yards (83-D.Young).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model