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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to SEA 38 for 14 yards (27-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model