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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model