Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 24

(11:07) 38-C.Ryland punts 44 yards to SEA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model