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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP