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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 5, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-25-K.McIntosh.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP