Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 24

(1:39) 38-C.Ryland punts 36 yards to SEA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model