Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 1-J.Darden ran ob at SEA 20 for 14 yards (0-Z.Pascal). ARI-12-B.Gillikin was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.26 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model