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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP