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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to NO 2, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.15 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP