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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 17

New York Giants 11 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:11) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model