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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 60

New York Giants 11 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -0.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model