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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 14 – New York Giants 11

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 43-M.Hayball punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 14 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP