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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 62

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to NO 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP