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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 49

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to NO 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model