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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 42

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to NO 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP