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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-Ja.Williams. 21-Ja.Williams right end to NO 48 for 2 yards (57-P.Johnson; 24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.61 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model