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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 25

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model