Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(1:28) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-56-A.Burney.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model