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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 90

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.79 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model