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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model