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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 1-R.White up the middle to LV 30 for 7 yards (25-D.Richardson; 30-D.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model