4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 5-J.Browning punts 40 yards to LV 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model