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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 14
Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
What Actually Happened
(6:30) 28-S.McCormick left guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
The Three Options
GO
+3.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP
KICK
+1.45 EP
- 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
