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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP