Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(7:55) 5-J.Browning punts 49 yards to LV 32, Center-86-E.Deckers. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 48 for 16 yards (53-V.Jones; 81-R.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.74 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model