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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LAC 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.50 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model