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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 16-J.Scott punts 32 yards to KC 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 16 for 9 yards (42-T.Fisk).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model