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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model