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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 49-M.Wright 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model