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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP