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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer to KC 25 for 15 yards (22-T.McDuffie) [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model