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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to LAC 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.80 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP