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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model