4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 49-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model