Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(11:32) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to KC 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 45 for 21 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.78 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model