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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.97 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model