Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(:34) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Boyd [91-A.Armstead].

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.82 EP
71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -1.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP