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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 19 for 8 yards (80-B.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model