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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP