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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP