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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 21

Detroit Lions 31 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(:43) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to GB 14 for 7 yards (57-B.Cox). GB-25-K.Nixon was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP