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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 69

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 26-J.Gibbs right end to DET 30 for -1 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model