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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 21 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to DET 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-M.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.58 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP