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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model