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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 51
Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 21
What Actually Happened
(9:05) 16-J.Goff up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (95-D.Wyatt).
The Three Options
GO
+1.33 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
- 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK
-1.21 EP
- 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
