Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 77

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:43) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to GB 27, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-22-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.88 EP
57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model