Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CIN 18, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-I.Williams to CIN 24 for 6 yards (40-H.Luepke). PENALTY on CIN-87-T.Hudson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.94 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model