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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:59) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model